By Jack Cozens
Barack Obama remains the American public’s most likely candidate to win office for a second term, according to a recent Gallup poll.
When asked “Regardless of whom you support, and trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think will win the election in November – Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?” a decisive 54% of those questioned favoured the incumbent Obama to Governor Romney, who attained 34% in the poll.
The results makes positive reading for the president, as similar polls conducted in the lead up to the re-election of George W. Bush in 2004 showed that 56% of those asked believed he would be re-elected. Previous to this, in 1996 a resounding 69% of those surveyed thought Bill Clinton would triumph.
And although since the Watergate scandal only three of the six presidents before Obama have been successfully re-elected, his camp can be confident in the fact that he has the elected legitimacy that Ford never had, a more competent persona than Carter possessed, and has not been burdened by the need to replicate policy set by his predecessor as H.W. Bush was.
This poll does not however provide a definite guide to how the electorate will vote on the day, with many polls showing the race to be extremely tight, whilst others – including one conducted by Gallup – showing Romney to be leading the race.